The United States has loosened Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks while a U.S. blockade has virtually halted Iran’s oil exports, according to figures compiled by Kpler oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi. The shift has restored more Gulf oil shipments but depends on a major U.S. military deployment, as the war launched by the United States and Israel in February continues without an exit strategy or renewed diplomatic progress.
Iran effectively closed the strait in the opening days of the war, disrupting a route used in peacetime by a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas while continuing to export its own oil, mainly to China. Falakshahi found that Iranian oil exports fell from 1.85 million barrels a day last spring to about 255,000 in August. Non-Iranian exports rose from 300,000 barrels a day at the height of the war to 8.4 million in September, or 10.8 million when alternative routes were included.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that flows were probably at least two-thirds of preconflict levels. Falakshahi put non-Iranian exports before the war at about 14 million barrels a day. The military effort supporting the increased flow has strained U.S. resources; the war has cost taxpayers more than $37.5 billion and killed 18 U.S. service members.
The wider economic effects remain severe. Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged above $100 a barrel this week, while diesel reached a record price, potentially increasing inflationary pressure. President Donald Trump has acknowledged that gasoline prices are likely to remain high through the midterm congressional elections. Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen have also intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia, contributing to renewed pressure on oil prices.
Economic pressure from the blockade and new U.S. sanctions has driven up prices in Iran and lengthened lines at gas stations, but Iran’s leaders have shown no sign of making concessions over the strait, the country’s disputed nuclear program or its support for armed groups in the region. Iran has continued attacking ships in the strait, prompting limited U.S. strikes on coastal areas, and has responded with missile attacks on Arab countries hosting U.S. forces.
A June agreement quickly collapsed, and low-level fighting has continued. Mona Yacoubian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the United States had achieved limited success in the strait and inflicted severe economic damage on Iran but was not winning the war. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said increased shipping and economic pressure had not produced a political outcome, leaving the conflict without a clear path to resolution.